A Round-Up of the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary Elections

Perhaps MacBeth’s words ring as true in 2026 as they did when Shakespeare penned them in 1606.

After tallying the results of the 7 May, 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election, pundits from across the political spectrum are already calling the outcome historic. With record-breaking seats returned for Reform UK and the Scottish Green Party, support for Labour and the Scottish Conservatives has plummeted to an all-time low.

Elections take place every five years on the first Thursday of May, under the 1998 Scotland Act.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) won the highest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood for the fifth consecutive time. Whilst the SNP lost six seats — falling from 64 representatives to 58 — and failed to secure a majority of 65 seats, they emerged as Scotland’s largest party, by far. 

Crucially, this represents the largest-ever pro-independence majority, with the SNP and the Scottish Greens achieving 73 seats. John Swinney, leader of the SNP, announced on the morning of 9 May that this has proven that the Scottish people want independence. In an address in Edinburgh, Swinney announced that he would demand a second Independence Referendum from Westminster before the 2029 General Election, citing the increased likelihood of Nigel Farage being the next Prime Minister as reason for the urgency.

Unionist parties (those against independence), object to this, highlighting that the first Independence Referendum, held in 2014, was supposed to be ‘once in a generation’. Further, whilst a pro-independence majority was secured, Swinney largely campaigned on an outright SNP majority to deliver a second Referendum, which the party fell short of.

In joint second place, Labour and Reform UK each secured seventeen seats at Holyrood, rendering the formation of an opposition party unclear.

This outcome has never happened in the 27 year-history of the Scottish Parliament  The results have prompted questions from politicians and pundits regarding which Party gets to ask the first question at First Ministers Questions (FMQs). FMQs occur weekly and are designed to hold the First Minister of Scotland— to account.

A Holyrood spokesperson reportedly said to the Scotsman that these issues will be considered by the Parliamentary Bureau, a committee consisting of the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament and one representative from each elected Party. The results of this will likely be announced on Friday 15 May, according to the same Holyrood source.

After a promising result in the 2024 General Election, Labour’s hopes for a Scottish resurgence were dashed, dropping from 22 MSPs to seventeen. Once the largest party in Scotland, Labour have returned fewer MSPs at every election since devolution.

In Scotland, representatives are elected via the Additional Member System (AMS), that blends the traditional first Past the Post System (used the UK-wide General Elections), and Proportional Representation. AMS’ aim is to achieve a proportional result, attempting to match the number of seats each party receives with the number of votes as evenly as possible.

The system contains two types of seats: a constituency seat, which is a singular member for a smaller area (such as North East Fife), and regional seats, where seven MSPs represent an entire region of Scotland (such as mid Scotland and Fife).

North East Fife returned Lib Dem MSP Willie Rennie,who has represented the area since 2016. Rennie won over 21,000 votes, comfortably defeating the SNP’s John Beare, who received 7,876. 

The2026 election saw a record number of seats for the Scottish contingent of Reform UK, led by Malcolm Offord, and the Scottish Green Party, co-chaired by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay. 

Reform — who had previously never elected an MSP to the Scottish Parliament — now have seventeen seats all elected via the regional “list”. 

For St Andrews, this includes two regional Reform representatives, former Labourite and present Councillor for Burntisland and West Kirkcaldy Julie MacDougall, and Helen McDade, an environmental activist. 

The other regional representatives for St Andrews include two Labour members: Claire Baker, who has represented the region since 2007, and Joe Long, a first-time Labour MSP. Murdo Fraser and Stephen Kerr were elected as the region’s veteran Conservative representatives,, with the total number of Tories falling from four to two. Fraser has represented the region since 2003, and Kerr formerly represented the neighbouring region of Central Scotland from 2021. 

Mid Scotland and Fife is also represented by Scottish Green member, Mark Ruskell. Ruskell is a fellow long-serving member, having been elected for the region from 2003-07, then once more from 2016 to the present. 

The Scottish Greens anticipated winning a second seat in the region, potentially depriving the Conservatives of a second regional seat. However, the Greens fell short by just shy of 1,000 votes. Commentators from various media outlets including The National and The Times, are suggesting that the reason for this unexpected loss is due to erroneous votes for a party called the Independent Green Voice (IGV). IGV are a far-right Party who the Scottish Greens claim intentionally utilise Green emblems to confuse voters on the ballot, pointing to the fact that on the ballot, the word Green is significantly larger than the words ‘independent’ or ‘voice,'. According to The Times, Co-Convener of the party, Gillian Mackay, reportedly wrote to the Electoral Commission with concerns about confusion over IGV, requesting action be taken to differentiate the parties further. Whilst the Scottish Greens fell short of a second seat by less than 1,000 votes, IGV attained over 2,600 in Mid Scotland and Fife.

A PhD graduate from the University of St Andrews, Dr Q Mannivannan, has been elected to represent the region of Edinburgh and Lothians East. Manivannan is a researcher and tutor in the School of International Relations. Manivannan, who is non-binary, made history as the first trans-identifying MSP.

With no party forming a majority, the big question is who will run Holyrood? 

First Minister John Swinney has invited the respective party leaders,  — excluding Reform — to begin negotiations ahead of the next Parliament in Edinburgh. In an address on 9 May, Swinney outlined his ambition to discover where parties can work together over the next five years. Explicitly, he referred to a desire to “fully Farage-proof” Holyrood, explaining why Reform was not invited to the talks. 

The SNP could attempt to operate as a minority government, a precarious option that forces the government to pass legislation on a vote-by-vote basis. In the last Parliament, the SNP had to negotiate with the Liberal Democrats in order to get their budget passed. Having led a minority government from 2024, Swinney has expressed that he is comfortable operating on an issue-by-issue basis. In 2007-11, the SNP governed without a formal power-sharing arrangement, offering concessions to smaller parties in exchange for their support on budgets and larger bills. In theory, AMS is designed to not produce an outright majority but force greater collaboration amongst parties.

Alternatively, the SNP could enter into a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens, a route that was explored after the 2021 election, yet broke down in 2024, under previous First Minister Humza Yousaf.

Both parties have indicated that this is a viable option, with the respective leaders indicating a willingness to collaborate  if no majority was reached. Speaking to the BBC, Co-convener of the Scottish Greens stated that the party was “more than prepared” to work with the SNP.

Despite the willingness of both parties to cooperate, uncertainty remains. It is expected that fractured views on several major issues will emerge if serious negotiations begin, the most important of which being North Sea oil. The Scottish Greens have stated that they would not enter a power sharing agreement if the SNP intends to renew contracts with North Sea oil and gas as the Green Party advocate for “a just transition” towards renewable energy. The SNP’s Stephen Flynn stated during his acceptance speech for Aberdeen Deeside that oil and gas industries would have “no greater champion” in Holyrood than himself. Former leader of the SNP in Westminster, Flynn carries significant weight within the party, including reportage from the New Statesman that he may eventually succeed Swinney. This may throw the potential for a power-sharing agreement into question.

Questions around a potential second Scottish Independence Referendum, the Holyrood majority, and the government's opposition remain persistent and unclear. With Holyrood’s most left-wing party, the Scottish Greens, returning their highest-ever number of MSPs at the same time as Reform UK makes monumental inroads in Scotland, all that remains certain in Scottish politics is doubt.

Image sourced from Wikimedia Commons.