Automating War

The US Army's operations doctrine notes, "War is a human endeavor — a fundamentally human clash of wills … It is not a mechanical process that can be controlled precisely, or even mostly, by machines, statistics, or laws." Like the rest of US military strategy, this is proving itself severely outdated. In April this year, the Ukrainian army (AFU) captured a Russian position entirely with robots powered by artificial intelligence.

The star of the show is Droid TW-7.62, an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV). It's nothing like the bulky tanks that rolled through the streets of European cities during the world wars; in fact, it's not much bigger than one of those small electric buggies I was jealous of as a kid. It keeps the treads of its manned ancestors, but on top of them sits a flat metal pallet with a little Wall-E head anchored to it. Rising just over its brows — constantly following its eyeline — is a barrel almost two metres long. This droid has shown immense promise from the very start of its tenure, with the AFU capturing three Russian prisoners of war in January using its sophisticated AI tracking software.

In April, an ensemble of similar UGVs, in conjunction with a team of unmanned aerial drones, launched an assault on a Russian position near Dobropillya. With human soldiers stationed over three kilometres away, the ground team opened fire on the enemy soldiers, causing them to retreat to a nearby shelter, at which point the aerial drones orchestrated bombings to keep them trapped. After calling for support and realising there was no hope of it arriving in time, the surviving Russian combatants surrendered. At this point, one droid monitored them as they completely disarmed themselves and then led them all the way back to the concealed Ukrainian position, where they were taken prisoner.

This adds to the mounting pressure on Putin both internationally and domestically to end the war. Ukraine's success has been snowballing, taking the casualty rate from an already astounding 2:1 or 3:1 all the way to an 8:1 ratio in the first half of 2026. John Ratcliffe,  CIA director, remarks that the estimated lifespan of a Russian soldier on the front lines is just twenty to30 minutes. These statistics add to the economic pressure as Ukrainian drone strikes wipe out Russian oil depots. Earlier US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the source of more than half of Russia's oil exports, could further shrink those exports. At home, this is starting to hit — some state pollsters have recorded Putin's steepest approval drop since the start of the war as ordinary Russians grow more and more exhausted with a war marketed as a quick and easy win.

Ukraine's continued strategic victories have only grown their auspices. Over the summer, the EU opened two of its six negotiation clusters, a major step toward the country gaining membership. Finland President Alexander Stubb stated: "We Europeans have to understand we need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs us." This has proven true globally as Gulf states made a massive ten year deal with Ukraine earlier this year to buy not just their hardware, but their strategic expertise. As part of the deal, over 200 Ukrainian drone specialists will operate across the Gulf, providing advice and carrying out operations. This broader lack of dependence gives Ukraine incredible bargaining power with their other allies, notably America, whose President just a year ago famously told Zelensky, "You don't have the cards."

As the war wages on, Zelensky's hand is growing while Putin's keeps on shrinking. Though the conflict is still deeply uncertain and seems far from over, Ukraine has more power in negotiation and military capability than ever.

Image from Wikimedia Commons